How up or down rounds work

The idea in one line

An up or down round asks one question: will this coin finish the window higher than it started? You buy Up or Down, and when the window closes the winning side pays $1 a share.

The price to beat

Every round starts with a reference price, the price to beat. If the coin ends at or above it, Up wins. Below it, Down wins. On the TradeLabs AI chart the price to beat is a line, with the gap between it and the live price beside it.

Prices are chances

Up and Down shares trade between 1 and 99 cents, and the two add up to about $1. A 70 cent Up price means the market puts Up’s chance near 70%. Buy Up at 70 cents and it pays $1 if Up wins: 30 cents profit a share, or the 70 cents lost if it does not.

Polymarket

Polymarket runs these rounds in windows of 5 minutes and 15 minutes. A round settles UP when the reference price at the close of the window is at or above the reference price at the open, and DOWN otherwise. Polymarket resolves against a time-weighted average price rather than a single instantaneous tick, which is why the figure shown on a venue page can lag a spot price you see elsewhere.

Polymarket up or down markets · Bitcoin rounds

Kalshi

Kalshi runs 15 minute rounds on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and DOGE. A round settles on CF Benchmarks’ Real Time Index: Up when the 60 second average before the close is at least the 60 second average before the open. Kalshi shows the price to beat as its Target Price.

Kalshi Bitcoin rounds · Kalshi Ethereum rounds

What moves the odds

• The gap to the price to beat. The further the coin is above it, the dearer Up gets.
• Time left. The same gap matters more with 20 seconds left than with 4 minutes left.
• How fast the coin is moving. A jumpy market keeps both sides alive longer.

Practise first

Paper trading lets you trade live Polymarket rounds with virtual money, so you can learn how the odds behave before anything real is at stake. Read the risk disclosure too: these markets are fast, and where you live decides whether you may use them.