Scroll to follow one prediction from the moment it is made to the moment its result is public.
A candle is one block of price history, for example one hour. The moment it closes, the 23 engines vote and the call is written down with the exact time and the price at that moment, before it appears on the site.
The call is stored on our server first and only then shown to you, and every settled round is appended to a permanent archive. A bad call cannot quietly disappear: on the rare occasion we correct one by hand, the correction is written to that same archive and the round is labelled MANUAL on the outcome grid, where anyone can see it.
When the time is up we take the live market price. Higher than the price at the call means UP was right, lower means DOWN was right. No opinions and no second chances, just the number.
The result goes straight into the public accuracy feed that this page reads from. Wins and misses both count, and every percentage on this page sits next to the number of calls it is based on.
| # | Trader | P&L | ROI | Win Rate | Trades | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bagel | + $5475.78 | +547.6% | 100% | 7 | $6475.78 |
| 2 | Mana Jacky | + $3835.93 | +383.6% | 73% | 21 | $4835.93 |
| 3 | Anonymous | + $480.07 | +48.0% | 80% | 5 | $1480.07 |
| 4 | Anonymous | + $204.54 | +20.5% | 44% | 9 | $1204.54 |
| 5 | joshuastarks097@gmail.com | + $191.48 | +19.1% | 33% | 8 | $1191.48 |
| 6 | Janaira Paiva freires | + $118.36 | +11.8% | 100% | 2 | $218.36 |
| 7 | Gisus Crist | + $52.34 | +5.2% | 100% | 1 | $1152.34 |
| 8 | Faisal | + $50.38 | +5.0% | 100% | 2 | $1050.38 |
| 9 | ?? | + $24.29 | +2.4% | 42% | 14 | $1024.29 |
| 10 | 123 123 | + $14.78 | +1.5% | 100% | 1 | $1014.78 |
| 11 | 李洺权PRO | + $10.60 | +1.1% | 100% | 2 | $1010.60 |
| 12 | Anonymous | + $4.37 | +0.4% | 100% | 1 | $1004.37 |
| 13 | William Harbic | + $0.68 | +0.1% | 100% | 2 | $1000.68 |
| 14 | 23t Angor | + $0.42 | +0.0% | 100% | 2 | $1000.42 |
| 15 | اهان | + $0.08 | +0.0% | 100% | 1 | $1000.08 |
Across 22,830 graded calls on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and DOGE, the published hit rate is 52.7%, with a 95% range of 52.1% to 53.4%.
Each call is locked in the last minute before its five-minute round opens, by 23 signal engines voting together, and it is saved on our server before it appears anywhere. When the round settles, the call is graded against the market's own result, UP or DOWN. Wins and misses both count.
The paper trading leaderboard ranks public accounts by realized profit from paper trades on Polymarket crypto markets. Paper trades use simulated money, never real funds. An account needs at least one trade to appear, is listed only while its realized P&L is zero or better, and its ROI is measured against the standard $1,000 starting balance.
Separately, 71,406 settled up/down market rounds across 8 assets are recorded in the outcome dataset, one row per round.
How we score sets out the method and the statistical test in full.