How we score ourselves

What a round is

A round is five minutes long. When it opens, the market records a price to beat. When it closes, the round settles UP if the asset finishes at or above that price, and DOWN otherwise. That is the whole question our engines answer, and it is the same question the prediction market is pricing, which is what makes a call checkable.

The 23 engines

Each engine reads one thing and votes. Correlated engines are grouped into a cluster and share one effective vote, so five ways of measuring the same trend cannot outvote everything else.

The five clusters are trend, crowd (the live prediction-market odds and how fast they move), order flow, independent signals and mean reversion. How each cluster is weighted, and what each engine reads, is ours. Pro accounts can let the weights adapt to recent results.

How a call is graded

1. The engines vote in the last minute before a round opens, and the call is written down before the round starts, with the confidence and the number of engines that agreed.
2. When the round settles, the outcome is read from the market that resolves it.
3. The call is marked right or wrong and appended to a lifetime archive. Nothing is recalculated later, and a losing call cannot be quietly dropped: if a settled round is ever corrected by hand, the correction is appended too and the round is labelled MANUAL where the outcomes are shown.
4. The counts behind every published figure come from that archive. You can read the settled outcomes yourself on the outcome dataset.

When we publish a hit rate

Short-horizon markets are close to a coin flip, and small samples of coin flips produce impressive-looking streaks. So a hit rate is published only when both hold:

• at least 100 graded calls for that asset, and
• the 95% Wilson lower bound is above 50%.

A figure that fails either test is not shown, because a number that cannot carry its own weight tells you less than the record itself.

Proven edge: 52.7% over 22,825 graded calls (95% CI 52.1 to 53.4%)

Every tracked asset has cleared the bar on its own: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE.

Where to check us

LeaderboardOutcome datasetUp/down markets